Data report · Q3 2026 edition · Updated July 2026

India CBAM Cost Index Q3 2026

The quarterly reference on what the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism actually costs Indian exporters of steel, aluminium, cement and fertiliser — comparing the price of shipping on EU default values against verified actual emissions, sector by sector.

Last updated: July 2026Next edition: Q4 2026How to cite this index ↓
Headline findings · Q3 2026
€250–270/t
Default-basis CBAM cost, Indian BF steel — vs ~€65–170/t on verified actuals
€80k–€180k
Overpaid per 1,000-tonne consignment when defaults replace actuals
€70–80/tCO₂
CBAM certificate price range in 2026 (tracks the EU ETS)
Up to ~40%
CBAM cost saving when verified actuals replace default values
The index, sector by sector

Default values vs verified actuals, across all four CBAM sectors

Every table below compares typical Indian emission intensities against EU averages and the EU default value applied when no verified data is filed. The gap between the last two columns is the overpayment — it is route-specific, and it is removable.

Iron & Steel

CN 72 & 73

The production route decides the bill. Indian BF-BOF steel typically runs ≈2.1–2.2 tCO₂ per tonne of actual embedded emissions — usually well below what EU defaults assume — so filing verified actuals is a direct cost advantage.

Verified actual vs EU default · tCO₂ per tonne of crude steel Your verified actualOverpayment on EU default
BF-BOF (Blast Furnace)₹56–80 L saved / 1,000 t
0.00.0
EAF (Electric Arc Furnace)Scenario dependent
0.00.0
DRI / Sponge Iron + EAF₹40–64 L saved / 1,000 t
0.00.0
IF (Induction Furnace)₹36–56 L saved / 1,000 t
0.00.0

Representative midpoints. The red zone is the markup an EU default applies when no verified actual is filed — that gap is what the buyer overpays.

Production routeIndia typicalEU averageEU default valueSavings with actuals
BF-BOF (Blast Furnace)2.2–2.81.4–1.83.5+₹56–80 lakh
EAF (Electric Arc Furnace)0.8–1.40.3–0.52.0+₹48–72 lakh
DRI/Sponge Iron + EAF1.8–2.41.0–1.23.0+₹40–64 lakh
IF (Induction Furnace)1.2–2.00.5–0.82.5+₹36–56 lakh

Emission values in tCO₂ per tonne of crude steel. Full sector detail: CBAM for Iron & Steel exporters →

Aluminium

CN 76

Aluminium is the most electricity-driven CBAM sector: the same smelter output carries a very different footprint on coal power versus captive hydro or renewables — which makes the gap to a single flat default the widest of any sector.

Verified actual vs EU default · tCO₂ per tonne of aluminium Your verified actualOverpayment on EU default
Primary smelting (coal power)₹1.2–1.8 Cr saved / 1,000 t
0.00.0
Primary smelting (hydro / renewable)₹2.5–3.8 Cr saved / 1,000 t
0.00.0
Secondary (scrap-based)Scenario dependent
0.00.0
Extrusion / fabrication₹60–96 L saved / 1,000 t
0.00.0

Representative midpoints. Renewable-powered smelting shows the single largest default-vs-actual gap in the index.

Production routeIndia typicalEU averageEU default valueSavings with actuals
Primary Smelting (Coal Power)14.0–18.06.0–8.020.0+₹1.2–1.8 Cr
Primary Smelting (Captive Hydro/Renewable)4.0–7.02.0–4.020.0+₹2.5–3.8 Cr
Secondary (Scrap-Based)0.5–1.50.3–0.83.0+₹48–72 lakh
Extrusion / Fabrication1.0–3.00.5–1.55.0+₹60–96 lakh

Emission values in tCO₂ per tonne of aluminium. Full sector detail: CBAM for Aluminium exporters →

Cement

CN 2523

Blended Indian cements (PPC, PSC) substitute clinker with fly ash or slag, so their actual intensity sits well below the flat defaults applied to unverified shipments.

Verified actual vs EU default · tCO₂ per tonne of cement / clinker Your verified actualOverpayment on EU default
Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC)20–35% lower CBAM tax
0.00.0
Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC)25–40% lower CBAM tax
0.00.0
Portland Slag Cement (PSC)30–40% lower CBAM tax
0.00.0
Clinker (unblended)20–30% lower CBAM tax
0.00.0

Representative midpoints. Blended cements benefit most from verified actuals because defaults do not credit clinker substitution.

Cement typeIndia typicalEU averageEU default valueSavings with actuals
Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC)0.82–0.950.60–0.701.2020–35%
Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC)0.55–0.700.45–0.550.9025–40%
Portland Slag Cement (PSC)0.45–0.600.40–0.500.8530–40%
Clinker (unblended)0.85–1.050.75–0.851.3520–30%

Emission values in tCO₂ per tonne of cement / clinker. Full sector detail: CBAM for Cement exporters →

Fertilisers

CN 28 & 31

Feedstock is destiny: natural-gas ammonia runs cooler than naphtha-based routes, and nitric-acid plants with N₂O abatement can sit far below the default.

Verified actual vs EU default · tCO₂e per tonne of product Your verified actualOverpayment on EU default
Ammonia (natural gas)25–35% lower CBAM tax
0.00.0
Ammonia (naphtha-based)10–25% lower CBAM tax
0.00.0
Urea20–40% lower CBAM tax
0.00.0
Nitric acid (with N₂O abatement)Up to 70% lower CBAM tax
0.00.0

Representative midpoints. Fertiliser is the only CBAM sector where N₂O (not just CO₂) counts, so abatement status moves the number sharply.

ProductIndia typicalEU averageEU default valueSavings with actuals
Ammonia (natural gas)1.8–2.21.6–1.92.825–35%
Ammonia (naphtha-based)2.5–3.2N/A3.510–25%
Urea1.0–1.50.8–1.01.820–40%
Nitric acid0.8–2.50.3–0.53.0Varies widely

Emission values in tCO₂e per tonne of product. Full sector detail: CBAM for Fertilisers exporters →

The escalation outlook

The cost of unverified data rises every year to 2034

Two escalators run in parallel: the default-value markup for steel and aluminium steps up from 10% in 2026 to 30% in 2028, and EU free allowances phase out until 2034. Certificate prices track the EU ETS, around €70–80/tCO₂ in 2026.

PeriodDefault markupApplies toWhat it means
202610% default markupSteel & aluminiumDefinitive regime begins; certificates purchased at EU ETS-linked prices (~€70–80/tCO₂).
2027EscalatingSteel & aluminiumDefault markup steps up on the path from 10% to 30%; free-allowance phase-out continues.
202830% default markupSteel & aluminiumDefault-basis costs peak relative to verified actuals — the penalty for unverified data widens.
2029–2033Rising CBAM shareAll CBAM sectorsEU free allowances continue phasing out, so a growing share of embedded emissions is payable.
2034Full exposureAll CBAM sectorsFree-allowance phase-out completes: 100% of embedded emissions carry CBAM certificate cost.
Methodology & sources

Where these figures come from

The India CBAM Cost Index is compiled quarterly by CarbonSettle from four source layers: the EU Regulation 2023/956 framework and its implementing acts, the EU’s published default values guidance, market analyst reporting through 2026 on default-basis versus verified-actual carbon costs, and CarbonSettle’s India-specific engagement experience across steel, aluminium, cement and fertiliser production routes.

Emission intensities shown are representative ranges and midpoints for typical Indian production routes — they are not plant-specific measurements. Per-plant numbers vary with fuel mix, grid factor, precursor sourcing and process configuration, and verified actual emissions can only be established through accredited verification of factory-level data. Euro cost figures use the 2026 CBAM certificate price context of €70–80/tCO₂, tracking the EU ETS.

The index is refreshed each quarter. Figures on this page reflect the Q3 2026 edition, last updated July 2026.

Cite this index

Journalists, researchers and analysts: this index is citable.

Suggested citation

CarbonSettle India CBAM Cost Index, Q3 2026, https://carbonsettle.com/india-cbam-cost-index

Republication of figures from this index is welcome with attribution to CarbonSettle and a link to this page. For sector-specific context or India production-route detail behind any figure, write to us — we respond to press and research queries.

Frequently asked

CBAM costs for Indian exporters, in plain English

How much does CBAM cost per tonne for Indian steel in 2026?

On a default-value basis, market analysts in 2026 report costs of roughly €250–€270 per tonne for Indian blast-furnace steel products. On verified actual emissions, the same steel typically costs roughly €65–€170 per tonne — because Indian BF-BOF steel actually runs at about 2.1–2.2 tCO₂ per tonne, well below what the defaults assume. The difference works out to about €80,000–€180,000 per 1,000-tonne consignment.

What are CBAM default values and why are they so expensive?

When an EU importer cannot present verified emission data for a shipment, the EU applies default values — deliberately conservative reference intensities set well above typical actual emissions, plus a markup that escalates from 10% in 2026 to 30% in 2028 for steel and aluminium. Defaults exist to make unverified data the expensive option: an Indian BF-BOF plant emitting around 2.5 tCO₂/t is charged as if it emitted 3.5+ tCO₂/t unless verified actuals are filed.

How much can Indian exporters save with verified actual emissions?

Up to about 40% of the CBAM cost, depending on sector and production route. The saving comes from replacing the inflated default (and its escalating markup) with the plant’s real, verified emission intensity. Renewable-powered aluminium smelting shows the widest gap in the index; blended cements (PPC, PSC) and gas-based ammonia also sit well below their defaults.

What is the CBAM certificate price in 2026?

CBAM certificates track the EU ETS carbon price, which in 2026 sits around the €70–€80 per tonne of CO₂ range. The certificate price applies per tonne of embedded emissions, so the emission intensity filed (actual vs default) multiplies directly into the euro cost of every consignment.

What happens to CBAM costs by 2034?

Costs rise on two tracks. First, the default-value markup for steel and aluminium escalates from 10% in 2026 to 30% in 2028, widening the penalty for unverified data. Second, EU free allowances phase out progressively until 2034, when 100% of embedded emissions carry certificate cost. An exporter relying on defaults faces both escalators at once; one filing verified actuals only faces the phase-out, on a lower base.
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The EU's definitive CBAM phase began in January 2026, and buyers now demand verified actual emissions. We cover the full cost of your first CBAM report — for the April–June 2026 quarter — so an inflated EU default value never costs you an order. Start by 30 September 2026; continuing after is a normal paid engagement, only if you choose to.

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